Many brands still assume that plastic packaging is simply cheaper than paper packaging.
Historically, that has often been true. But several requirements under the EU's PPWR are likely to change the cost equation over the coming years.
From 2030, different categories of plastic packaging will be required to contain 30% to 65% recycled content, depending on the type of packaging. Around the same period, new requirements will also push online retailers to offer consumers reusable packaging options.
This article looks at how these changes could increase the hidden cost of plastic packaging—and what brands can do now instead of waiting until the rules fully take effect.
Will Plastic Packaging Still Be the Cheaper Option?
Historically, in many applications, yes.
But if the EU is one of your target markets, the comparison may gradually change over the next few years.
This is not simply a vague prediction about where the market might be heading. The regulatory timeline is already being built into EU packaging legislation.
The real cost of packaging will increasingly depend not only on the price per box, bag, or container, but also on the cost of meeting the relevant compliance requirements.
What Exactly Are the Recycled Content Requirements?
Starting in 2030, different categories of plastic packaging will be required to contain a minimum percentage of recycled plastic.
The exact percentage depends on the packaging category and application, but the general range is approximately 30% to 65%.
On paper, this may look like a relatively simple material-composition requirement. In practice, however, it can affect costs at several different stages of the supply chain.
What Additional Costs Could This Create?
There are roughly three areas to consider.
1. Material Costs
The availability, price, and supply stability of suitable recycled plastics can differ significantly from virgin plastic. As demand for compliant recycled material increases, sourcing pressure and price volatility may become more noticeable.
2. Verification and Documentation
Brands may need to demonstrate that the recycled content in their packaging meets the required level. Depending on the supply chain and the specific packaging application, this can involve traceability records, supplier documentation, testing, or third-party verification. These are costs and administrative requirements that many brands may not have previously needed to manage.
3. Production and Supplier Changes
Recycled plastic can behave differently from virgin resin during processing. Manufacturers may need to adjust production settings, reformulate materials, or qualify new suppliers to achieve the required performance and compliance standards. Some of these are transition costs rather than permanent costs, but they still need to be included when calculating the real cost of changing packaging materials.
Is There Another Rule That Could Also Add Costs?
Yes.
From 2030, PPWR requirements will also affect how online retailers offer reusable packaging options to consumers.
Brands will not be able to treat reusable packaging as a purely symbolic option that is expensive, difficult to find, or clearly less attractive than the standard single-use alternative.
In practice, businesses will need to develop a reusable packaging option that can realistically function as part of the customer experience. That can mean additional costs in packaging design, operations, logistics, and customer communication.
Does This Mean Paper Packaging Will Always Be Cheaper?
No—and this is important.
The right packaging material still depends on the product's protection requirements, budget, shipping conditions, functionality, and brand positioning. There is no single material that is automatically the best choice for every application.
However, when you look at the regulatory timeline from 2026 through 2030, the cost curve for certain plastic packaging formats is likely to move upward—not necessarily because plastic itself is becoming inherently more expensive, but because compliance requirements are adding structural costs.
Compared with that, paper-based packaging may face fewer additional adjustments in some areas because it is already closely aligned with established fiber-recycling systems and does not face the same recycled-plastic content requirements.
If My Brand Plans to Stay in the EU Market Long Term, What Should I Do Now?
The practical approach is to start evaluating your packaging materials alongside the medium- and long-term cost of EU compliance.
Don't wait until 2030, when more requirements are fully in force and changes may have to be made under pressure.
Now—while the new rules are still relatively fresh and many businesses have not yet carried out a full review—is a good time to map your current packaging, compare material options, and understand where future compliance costs may arise.
The earlier you understand your packaging costs beyond the unit price, the more options you have to make changes gradually rather than reactively.
